Saudi Oil, Iran, and the Abqaiq Attack - Professor Joshua Landis

A super educational interview with renowned Syria and Middle East expert, Professor Joshua Landis, the University of Oklahoma’s Director of Middle East Studies. Tune in to The Stock Podcast to hear Dr. Landis discuss the Trump Administration’s decision to renew sanctions against Iran, the Syrian Civil War, and the Kurdish problem in the Middle East. And, most relevant to some listeners, listen to Dr. Landis discuss the geopolitics of oil. A great podcast for anyone who would like to learn more about what’s going on in the Middle East, and some of the implications for energy markets and the geopolitics of energy. Check out Josh’s blog, Syria Comment, to learn more about what’s going on in the region.

Professor Joshua Landis is one of the most well-respected and knowledgeable Middle East experts around. Cumulatively, he’s spent years in the Middle East, in Syria and Lebanon in particular. Dr. Landis’ blog, Syria Comment, is one of the most widely read blogs on the Syrian Civil War and the Middle East as a whole. Full disclosure, Dr. Landis was a former professor of mine, so it’s a particular pleasure to have him on the program to talk about some of the most interesting developments in the Middle East, and how those developments are affecting the geopolitics of oil.

Kris Kelley is the founder and managing partner of Legacy Ridge Capital Management, a private investment firm that Kris started in 2018, shortly after he left Janus Henderson Investors. Kris has some strong views when it comes to the money management industry, views I personally agree with and ones I think every investor should hear. Kris is a value-focused, contrarian investor who believes the best way for active managers to serve their investors is through highly concentrated portfolios.

Now, if you were to ask a hundred value investors who had the greatest impact on their investment philosophy and principles, I’m sure you’d hear a lot of the same names – Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger, Ben Graham, Seth Klarman, and Stanley Drukenmiller. These investors have most certainly had an impact on me, but Kris has hands-down had the greatest impact on my investing philosophy….and that’s because Kris was my mentor during my six years at Janus. He’s one of, if not the greatest investors I know personally, he lives and breaths value-investing, and the perspectives he shares in this interview should open everyone’s eyes to a flawed industry.

Mike Rothman is the President and Founder of Cornerstone Analytics, an independent research firm that provides macro energy research. Mike is an industry veteran, having covered the oil market sector since 1984. He started his career at Merrill Lynch, built the energy research platform at ISI, and has attended OPEC meetings since 1986. Mike joins The Stock Podcast to discuss the global oil market, capacity reserves, and supply following the recent attack on the Abqaiq oil processing facility. On Sept. 14, 2019, the world awoke to the news that numerous drones and scud missiles hit Abqaiq, the world’s largest oil processing facility. The attack resulted in 5.7 million barrels of oil production capacity going offline, which equates to about 6% of global oil production. The event was the single largest loss of Saudi oil production in history. 

Meg Gentle is the CEO of Tellurian Inc (ticker symbol TELL), a company that is developing a massive LNG export terminal in Louisiana called Driftwood. Meg joins The Stock Podcast to talk about Tellerian Inc.’s asset portfolio, US energy exports, and the LNG industry. If you don’t know what LNG is, you really need to listen to this interview with Meg. LNG is one of the fastest growing exports in the US. Why? Because the cost to produce natural gas in the US keeps falling, and with growing domestic supply, this commodity needs a home. And it’s companies like Tellurian that make it possible to send the natural gas to international markets. At the time this interview was recorded, Tellurian Inc. had a market cap of $1.9B, nearly $60M of debt, and a little more than $130M in cash, bringing the total enterprise value to just shy of $1.8B.

To summarize some of the key points, Tellurian is developing the Driftwood LNG export terminal. But what’s really interesting about Tellurian compared to other LNG companies is that they’re building an integrated system. That means Tellurian won’t just liquify the natural gas, but they’ll own a piece of the production, transportation, and liquefaction.

And by building an integrated LNG business, that essentially gives the Tellurian full control of its future. To put things in context as to why LNG exports are such a big deal, consider that about a decade ago, the US was importing LNG. But something interesting was happening in the oil patch during the early 2000s. Some small, intrepid energy companies were developing a new way to extract oil and gas from something called shale. As the frackers perfected this new method of oil and gas extraction, production costs came down and supply started to grow very rapidly. With the growth in domestic supply, natural gas prices declined precipitously. While it may not make gas producers super happy, the price of natural gas in the US has declined to the extent that the country will soon become one of the largest LNG exporters in the world. For producers, at least there’s a volume story!

Jim Lucier is a Managing Director at Capital Alpha Partners, a leading Wall Street research firm providing strategic policy analysis and political forecasting. Jim leads the energy, environmental, and tax practices at Cap Alpha. Tune in to hear Jim talk to IwtB about Trump’s proposal to replace the Clean Power Plan (CPP) with the Affordable Clean Energy (ACE) rule, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) and its importance in the buildout of US energy infrastructure, and a conversation about Colorado’s Initiative 97 and the attempt to drastically limit fracking in the state.

Chris Sighinolfi rejoins The Stock Podcast for a follow-up interview where he talks about the current state of midstream. Tune in to hear Chris talk about investor sentiment, the role of ESG (environmental, social, and governance) mandates in the midstream space, and his perspectives on distribution cuts in the sector.

Duke Austin is the CEO & COO of Quanta Services (PWR). Quanta provides E&C contracting services and comprehensive infrastructure solutions for electric and gas utilities, oil and gas companies, and the communications industry. Tune in to hear Duke describe his business, the outlook for US energy infrastructure and 5G build-out, and the financial goals Quanta is targeting.

Pat Sanchez is the President and COO of Sanchez Midstream Partners (SNMP). Listen to Pat describe SNMP’s operation and what gathering, processing, and fractionation are all about.