Oil Market Dynamics, Capacity Reserves, and Abqaiq - Cornerstone Analytics' Mike Rothman

Brad Slingerlend and Brinton Johns are the co-founders of NZS Capital, LLC, an investment firm that focuses on innovative businesses that demonstrate non-zero-sum (NZS) characteristics. If you’re wondering what non-zero-sum means in investing, you really have to listen to this episode! Brad and Brinton are veteran tech investors with a top tier performance track record. Together they oversaw the Janus Henderson Technology funds for nearly 10 years. Over that period, they honed and perfected their investment philosophy and principles, which they share in this episode.

Chris Whalen is the Chairman of Whalen Global Advisors, an author, and co-founder of Institutional Risk Analytics. Chris is recognized as one of the investors who anticipated the eventual bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers and has a reputation as one of the foremost banking analysts on Wall Street. Tune in to hear Chris discuss banks, interest rates, and the leadership changes at the Federal Reserve on The Stock Podcast.

If you’d like to learn more about Chris Whalen, you should check out his blog here. Also, I highly encourage anyone interested in learning more about interest rates, credit spreads, and the dynamics behind bank earnings power to subscribe to the Institutional Risk Analyst. And if you want to dig deeper, you can purchase the quarterly IRA Bank Book.

A super educational interview with renowned Syria and Middle East expert, Professor Joshua Landis, the University of Oklahoma’s Director of Middle East Studies. Tune in to The Stock Podcast to hear Dr. Landis discuss the Trump Administration’s decision to renew sanctions against Iran, the Syrian Civil War, and the Kurdish problem in the Middle East. And, most relevant to some listeners, listen to Dr. Landis discuss the geopolitics of oil. A great podcast for anyone who would like to learn more about what’s going on in the Middle East, and some of the implications for energy markets and the geopolitics of energy. Check out Josh’s blog, Syria Comment, to learn more about what’s going on in the region.

Professor Joshua Landis is one of the most well-respected and knowledgeable Middle East experts around. Cumulatively, he’s spent years in the Middle East, in Syria and Lebanon in particular. Dr. Landis’ blog, Syria Comment, is one of the most widely read blogs on the Syrian Civil War and the Middle East as a whole. Full disclosure, Dr. Landis was a former professor of mine, so it’s a particular pleasure to have him on the program to talk about some of the most interesting developments in the Middle East, and how those developments are affecting the geopolitics of oil.

Meg Gentle is the CEO of Tellurian Inc (ticker symbol TELL), a company that is developing a massive LNG export terminal in Louisiana called Driftwood. Meg joins The Stock Podcast to talk about Tellerian Inc.’s asset portfolio, US energy exports, and the LNG industry. If you don’t know what LNG is, you really need to listen to this interview with Meg. LNG is one of the fastest growing exports in the US. Why? Because the cost to produce natural gas in the US keeps falling, and with growing domestic supply, this commodity needs a home. And it’s companies like Tellurian that make it possible to send the natural gas to international markets. At the time this interview was recorded, Tellurian Inc. had a market cap of $1.9B, nearly $60M of debt, and a little more than $130M in cash, bringing the total enterprise value to just shy of $1.8B.

To summarize some of the key points, Tellurian is developing the Driftwood LNG export terminal. But what’s really interesting about Tellurian compared to other LNG companies is that they’re building an integrated system. That means Tellurian won’t just liquify the natural gas, but they’ll own a piece of the production, transportation, and liquefaction.

And by building an integrated LNG business, that essentially gives the Tellurian full control of its future. To put things in context as to why LNG exports are such a big deal, consider that about a decade ago, the US was importing LNG. But something interesting was happening in the oil patch during the early 2000s. Some small, intrepid energy companies were developing a new way to extract oil and gas from something called shale. As the frackers perfected this new method of oil and gas extraction, production costs came down and supply started to grow very rapidly. With the growth in domestic supply, natural gas prices declined precipitously. While it may not make gas producers super happy, the price of natural gas in the US has declined to the extent that the country will soon become one of the largest LNG exporters in the world. For producers, at least there’s a volume story!

Kris Kelley is the founder and managing partner of Legacy Ridge Capital Management, a private investment firm that Kris started in 2018, shortly after he left Janus Henderson Investors. Kris has some strong views when it comes to the money management industry, views I personally agree with and ones I think every investor should hear. Kris is a value-focused, contrarian investor who believes the best way for active managers to serve their investors is through highly concentrated portfolios.

Now, if you were to ask a hundred value investors who had the greatest impact on their investment philosophy and principles, I’m sure you’d hear a lot of the same names – Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger, Ben Graham, Seth Klarman, and Stanley Drukenmiller. These investors have most certainly had an impact on me, but Kris has hands-down had the greatest impact on my investing philosophy….and that’s because Kris was my mentor during my six years at Janus. He’s one of, if not the greatest investors I know personally, he lives and breaths value-investing, and the perspectives he shares in this interview should open everyone’s eyes to a flawed industry.

Duke Austin is the CEO & COO of Quanta Services (PWR). Quanta provides E&C contracting services and comprehensive infrastructure solutions for electric and gas utilities, oil and gas companies, and the communications industry. Tune in to hear Duke describe his business, the outlook for US energy infrastructure and 5G build-out, and the financial goals Quanta is targeting.

Steve Fleishman is a Managing Director and Senior Analyst at Wolfe Research. Steve and his team cover the utilities, power, renewables, and midstream sectors at Wolfe Research. Steve has been Wall Street’s top-ranked utility analyst 14 times, so it’s an enormous honor to have him on the podcast! Tune in to hear Steve provide a great utility primer including a brief history of utilities, trends he and his team are following, and some of his thoughts on utility valuations today.

Steve agreed to come onto the program to give listeners of The Stock Podcast a utility primer. So, if you have an interest in utility investing, or you just like to gain an understanding of how utility investors think about the sector, this episode may be what you’re looking for.

You may recall from the Chris Sighinolfi interview that sector specialists like Steve know their industries forward and backward and Steve is a prime example of this. Steve has a reputation for being an extremely thoughtful analyst. If you listen to an earnings call with any of the big utilities, you’ll hear why. He asks questions that, in and of themselves, have a lot of meaning.

Apart from being one of the best analysts on Wall Street, Steve is one of the nicest guys I’ve met in the industry. He’s genuinely concerned about people, as well as their stock-picking performance. He was also one of a handful of Wall Street analysts that actually reached out to me after I quit my job to start this podcast. I consider myself fortunate to be able to call Steve a friend and he’s doing me and my listeners a big honor by coming onto the podcast.

Professor Joshua Landis is the Director of the Center for Middle East Studies at The University of Oklahoma. Prof. Landis joins The Stock Podcast to discuss the recent Saudi oil attack. On Sept. 14, 2019, the world awoke to the news that numerous drones and scud missiles hit Abqaiq, the world’s largest oil processing facility. The attack resulted in 5.7 million barrels of oil production capacity going offline, which equates to about 6% of global oil production. The event was the single largest loss of Saudi oil production in history. Immediately after the attack, Yemen’s Iranian-backed Houthi’s claimed responsibility. However, Prof. Landis is convinced that Iran is ultimately responsible, and the country with the most to gain from an attack on Saudi oil infrastructure. 

As the title indicates, the stock podcast is coming to a close, at least for the time being. As for me, I’m leaving the world of podcasting to return to investing. There are a number of reasons why I had to make this tough decision, but the primary reason is that I have an opportunity to work with Kris Kelley at Legacy Ridge Capital.

For the past two years, I’ve poured my heart and soul into this program in an attempt to level the playing field for all investors. I still believe in the mission and I hope someone can pick up where I’ve left off, either with a new podcast or with this one! So reach out if you’re interested in the platform.

Take care and good luck with your portfolio!

Chris Sighinolfi rejoins The Stock Podcast for a follow-up interview where he talks about the current state of midstream. Tune in to hear Chris talk about investor sentiment, the role of ESG (environmental, social, and governance) mandates in the midstream space, and his perspectives on distribution cuts in the sector.