Utilities

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By abercrombie Energy Investor/Analyst Private Company

25 Dec: Kris Kelley – Legacy Ridge Capital Management – The Stock Podcast, Ep.45

Kris Kelley is the founder and managing partner of Legacy Ridge Capital Management, a private investment firm that Kris started in 2018, shortly after he left Janus Henderson Investors. Kris has some strong views when it comes to the money management industry, views I personally agree with and ones I think every investor should hear. Kris is a value-focused, contrarian investor who believes the best way for active managers to serve their investors is through highly concentrated portfolios.

Now, if you were to ask a hundred value investors who had the greatest impact on their investment philosophy and principles, I’m sure you’d hear a lot of the same names – Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger, Ben Graham, Seth Klarman, and Stanley Drukenmiller. These investors have most certainly had an impact on me, but Kris has hands-down had the greatest impact on my investing philosophy….and that’s because Kris was my mentor during my six years at Janus. He’s one of, if not the greatest investors I know personally, he lives and breaths value-investing, and the perspectives he shares in this interview should open everyone’s eyes to a flawed industry.

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By abercrombie Energy Public Company Utilities

12 Dec: Vistra Energy (VST) CEO Curt Morgan – The Stock Podcast, Ep.43

Vistra Energy’s CEO rejoins The Stock Podcast to provide an update on the VST stock thesis. It’s always a pleasure to have Curt on the program to talk about his company and provide updates on the investment story. VST is one of my personal favorite investment ideas and Curt does a fantastic job of highlighting the key elements of the investment thesis. If you’d like to tune in to the first interview with Curt, click here!

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By Abercrombie Energy Free Podcast Public Company Utilities

19 Aug: Mark Harding – CEO of Pure Cycle Corp (PCYO) – Follow-Up Interview – The Stock Podcast, Ep.35

Mark Harding is the CEO of Pure Cycle Corp (PCYO), a growing water utility in Denver, CO. Mark rejoins The Stock Podcast to talk about the progress his company has made on the first two phases of Sky Ranch, a master plan community his company has been developing over the past decade. Mark also provides his perspectives on the oil and gas industry in the state of Colorado, his thoughts on the valuation of PCYO stock, what he’s been hearing from investors, and some insight into how he’s currently thinking about shareholder returns.

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By Abercrombie Energy Public Company Renewables Utilities

12 Mar: Bob Frenzel – CFO of Xcel Energy (XEL) – The Stock Podcast, Ep.27

Bob Frenzel is the CFO at Xcel Energy (XEL), one of the largest and greenest utilities in the US. Tune in to the Buyside podcast to hear Bob breakdown everything you’ve wanted to know about utility investing. Topics discussed include the regulatory process, renewable energy, carbon-free target, replacement cost, and how to value utilities.

In this interview, you’ll hear Bob talk about some of the elements that are required for a utility to be, well, a great utility. You’ll also hear about Xcel’s carbon-free ambitions and what the company will have to do to achieve their targets. And here’s a spoiler, achieving a carbon-free generation portfolio isn’t solely based on wind, solar, and batteries. The solution is actually much more complicated than pundits would like you to believe.

Bob also does a great job of describing just what the regulatory process is like for a utility, how a utility justifies spending money that we, as ratepayers, essentially pay for, and Bob also talks a little about how a utility determines the rates that we as customers must pay. As someone who likes to talk about the future of electric generation and utilities, having Bob on the program is a real treat, but for me, there are two really interesting topics that are discussed.

The first is the fact that regulated utilities don’t generate a ton of free cash flow. That’s because they’re constantly reinvesting into the grid. The second relates to replacement cost or replacement value. I won’t spoil that last one. It’s a doozy, at least for the value investors out there!

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By Abercrombie Energy Materials & Mining Public Company Utilities

01 Jan: Jimmy Brock and David Khani – CEO and CFO of CONSOL Energy (CEIX) – The Stock Podcast, Ep.23

CONSOL Energy’s CEO, Jimmy Brock, and CONSOL’s CFO, David Khani, join The Stock Podcast to describe the CONSOL investment thesis and the business of mining coal. CONSOL is one of the premier coal producers in the country. Tune in to hear management talk about the outlook for the business, the industry, and one of the most valuable coal assets in North America, the Pennsylvania Mining Complex.

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By Abercrombie Energy Teach-In Utilities

20 Oct: Ken Anderson – Texas Public Utility Commissioner – The Stock Podcast, Ep.18

Ken Anderson served as Commissioner with the Public Utility Commission of Texas (PUCT) from 2008-2017. Tune in to this episode of The Stock Podcast to hear Ken describes the success of Texas renewable energy, the history of ERCOT, and his views on an ERCOT capacity market. Ken also provides some of his perspectives on the current issues the PUCT will likely have to deal with down the road. In addition, Ken outlines some really interesting regulatory and market considerations regarding Sempra‘s acquisition of Oncor, as well as some of the benefits of limited federal oversight in building out CREZ and potential changes to the regulatory framework in Texas.

By means of background, Ken was a slightly controversial figure for utility investors. Ken’s opposition to an ERCOT capacity market was perplexing for many. However, Commissioner Anderson was unwavering when it came to his views on how deregulated power markets should operate. So far, he’s been spot on. ERCOT and Texas have some of the lowest power prices across the US. Part of this is attributable to strength in the Texas renewable energy industry. Sure, Texas is blessed with an extremely strong wind resource, but the free-market philosophy has helped to ensure growth in the industry, not to mention the construction of the CREZ line. It’s a fascinating success story for renewables.

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By Abercrombie Energy Infrastructure Public Company Renewables Utilities

09 Oct: Tom O’Flynn – CFO of AES Corporation (AES) – The Stock Podcast, Ep.17

Tom O’Flynn is the CFO of AES Corporation (AES). Tom provides a great overview of AES Corporation’s business model. He also discusses some really interesting catalysts for the company and highlights a compelling investment case for the shares of AES’ stock.

AES is a power company, but it’s different from regulated utilities, IPPs, and yieldcos, yet at the same time has similar characteristics. The asset portfolio includes traditional generation facilities, renewables, and a lot of the essential infrastructure required to produce and transmit electricity. Since the current management took the reins in 2011, they’ve pruned the portfolio, with more than $5B in asset sales over the past 7 years and exited 13 countries. During that time, management reduced parent level debt by $2B, cut costs by $300M, and they’ve returned almost $3B of cash to shareholders.

Part of the return to shareholders has been through dividends, and AES has also bought back about 16% of their stock since 2011. Another interesting fact is that the company has reduced coal generation capacity by about 20% over the past three years, and they’ve replaced a large portion of that capacity with renewable energy. De-risking the business has also been a key priority. Management has reduced AES’ FX exposure to around 15% from 40%.

Maybe one of the most interesting facts about AES Corp is that they are the largest owner of battery storage in the world, and the recently announced storage JV with Siemens called Fluence. The Fluence JV positions AES extremely well for the future. One of the reasons the battery JV is so interesting is because of the growth outlook. Generally speaking, growth investors aren’t interested in utilities. That’s because, double-digit earnings growth in utility-land is almost unheard of, at least not on multi-year outlook.

Another potentially big catalyst for AES Corp includes IMO 2020. This is a gross oversimplification, but IMO 2020 puts a cap on the amount of sulphur shipping vessels are allowed to use in fuel oil. This global regulation bodes well for global LNG demand. And with respect to debt, individual projects financed with non-recourse term debt, which means there is a natural deleveraging component to the business.

Something I like about this management team is that they’re focused on what they know, understand, and where they believe they have a competitive advantage. This perspective led to reducing the number of countries where they operate and becoming more acutely focused on developing and owning long-lived infrastructure assets.

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By Abercrombie Energy Investor/Analyst Midstream Renewables Teach-In Utilities

04 Jul: Steve Fleishman – Wolfe Research Utility Analyst – The Stock Podcast, Ep.12

Steve Fleishman is a Managing Director and Senior Analyst at Wolfe Research. Steve and his team cover the utilities, power, renewables, and midstream sectors at Wolfe Research. Steve has been Wall Street’s top-ranked utility analyst 14 times, so it’s an enormous honor to have him on the podcast! Tune in to hear Steve provide a great utility primer including a brief history of utilities, trends he and his team are following, and some of his thoughts on utility valuations today.

Steve agreed to come onto the program to give listeners of The Stock Podcast a utility primer. So, if you have an interest in utility investing, or you just like to gain an understanding of how utility investors think about the sector, this episode may be what you’re looking for.

You may recall from the Chris Sighinolfi interview that sector specialists like Steve know their industries forward and backward and Steve is a prime example of this. Steve has a reputation for being an extremely thoughtful analyst. If you listen to an earnings call with any of the big utilities, you’ll hear why. He asks questions that, in and of themselves, have a lot of meaning.

Apart from being one of the best analysts on Wall Street, Steve is one of the nicest guys I’ve met in the industry. He’s genuinely concerned about people, as well as their stock-picking performance. He was also one of a handful of Wall Street analysts that actually reached out to me after I quit my job to start this podcast. I consider myself fortunate to be able to call Steve a friend and he’s doing me and my listeners a big honor by coming onto the podcast.

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