The Current State of Midstream with Chris Sighinolfi

Will Eglin is the CEO of Lexington Realty Trust (LXP). Tune in to hear Will describe Lexington‘s portfolio transformation from a commercial REIT to an industrial REIT, the outlook for the LXP dividend, and the most important insider’s perspective on the value in LXP stock.

Lexington Realty is a REIT that has been around for years. But the business model has changed over time. Today is one of those times of change, especially as management sees the writing on the wall with respect to commercial real estate values and rents. LXP has already started the process of transitioning from a commercial REIT to an Industrial REIT. In order to achieve this goal, management has plans for re-rating the LXP dividend to a lower level.

Despite the dividend pause, there appears to be value in LXP stock. At the time of this interview, net debt is down to a manageable 4.3x EBITDA, and the company has completely repaid its revolver. Management has committed to buy back shares, while at the same time determined to transform itself into an industrial REIT by acquiring industrial properties – potentially up to $200M of industrial assets this year alone.

Assuming the company can execute on their plans, the LXP dividend could be resumed at 55-65% of 2019 FFO. I’ll note that consensus pegs the LXP dividend at $0.40-$0.48/share. That’s down meaningfully from 2017, but still juicy enough for The Stock Podcast and rationale real estate investors to Lexington Realty’s shares.

Nathan Kroeker is the President and CEO of Spark Energy (SPKE). Tune in to hear Nathan describe Spark Energy’s business model and why he thinks SPKE stock is undervalued. Nathan also shares his thoughts on the outlook for the industry, and an explanation as to why the retail energy services business is misunderstood by the broader market. Most importantly, he outlines the most important aspects of the SPKE investment story and highlights the key elements of a really compelling investment idea.

Spark went public in 2014 and was largely considered a roll-up story. Retail electricity businesses were trading really low multiples. So, SPKE could use its public currency, which carried a higher multiple, to roll-up private retail business at lower multiples. Recently, however, Nathan Kroeker shifted the company’s priorities to organic growth, and to optimize the business. Management expects to achieve 20M in cost savings from some discrete integration initiatives, which is a big deal for a company that generates less than $100M in EBITDA. Cash flows could grow meaningfully next year for Spark, especially since earn-out payments from previous acquisitions will be completed by mid-2019.

NRG Energy’s CFO Kirk Andrews rejoins The Stock Podcast to provide a business update. Tune in to hear Kirk describe NRG’s path to investment grade and what that could mean for the equity value of the company.

NRG is an integrated power producer. The company owns generation assets that primarily sell power at wholesale prices. NRG also operates a large portfolio of retail electricity companies. The integrated nature of NRG’s asset portfolio provides investors with stable cashflows. When power prices are high, the generation business benefits. When power prices are low, the retail business benefits. It’s an impressive mousetrap with high barriers to entry.  

Duke Austin is the CEO & COO of Quanta Services (PWR). Quanta provides E&C contracting services and comprehensive infrastructure solutions for electric and gas utilities, oil and gas companies, and the communications industry. Tune in to hear Duke describe his business, the outlook for US energy infrastructure and 5G build-out, and the financial goals Quanta is targeting.

Bahir Manios is the CFO of Brookfield Infrastructure, one of the largest diversified infrastructure companies in the world. Tune in to hear Bahir discuss BIP‘s asset portfolio, investment philosophy, and a very compelling investment story.

Steve Fleishman is a Managing Director and Senior Analyst at Wolfe Research. Steve and his team cover the utilities, power, renewables, and midstream sectors at Wolfe Research. Steve has been Wall Street’s top-ranked utility analyst 14 times, so it’s an enormous honor to have him on the podcast! Tune in to hear Steve provide a great utility primer including a brief history of utilities, trends he and his team are following, and some of his thoughts on utility valuations today.

Steve agreed to come onto the program to give listeners of The Stock Podcast a utility primer. So, if you have an interest in utility investing, or you just like to gain an understanding of how utility investors think about the sector, this episode may be what you’re looking for.

You may recall from the Chris Sighinolfi interview that sector specialists like Steve know their industries forward and backward and Steve is a prime example of this. Steve has a reputation for being an extremely thoughtful analyst. If you listen to an earnings call with any of the big utilities, you’ll hear why. He asks questions that, in and of themselves, have a lot of meaning.

Apart from being one of the best analysts on Wall Street, Steve is one of the nicest guys I’ve met in the industry. He’s genuinely concerned about people, as well as their stock-picking performance. He was also one of a handful of Wall Street analysts that actually reached out to me after I quit my job to start this podcast. I consider myself fortunate to be able to call Steve a friend and he’s doing me and my listeners a big honor by coming onto the podcast.

As the title indicates, the stock podcast is coming to a close, at least for the time being. As for me, I’m leaving the world of podcasting to return to investing. There are a number of reasons why I had to make this tough decision, but the primary reason is that I have an opportunity to work with Kris Kelley at Legacy Ridge Capital.

For the past two years, I’ve poured my heart and soul into this program in an attempt to level the playing field for all investors. I still believe in the mission and I hope someone can pick up where I’ve left off, either with a new podcast or with this one! So reach out if you’re interested in the platform.

Take care and good luck with your portfolio!

Steve Newby is the Founder and CEO of Summit Midstream Partners (SMLP). Tune in to hear Steve discuss Summit’s operations, his view on industry fundamentals, and what Steve and his team are doing to grow the business and improve cash flow stability. It’s a great interview that highlights the disconnect between a positive outlook and a seemingly mispriced security!

Chris Whalen is the Chairman of Whalen Global Advisors, an author, and co-founder of Institutional Risk Analytics. Chris is recognized as one of the investors who anticipated the eventual bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers and has a reputation as one of the foremost banking analysts on Wall Street. Tune in to hear Chris discuss banks, interest rates, and the leadership changes at the Federal Reserve on The Stock Podcast.

If you’d like to learn more about Chris Whalen, you should check out his blog here. Also, I highly encourage anyone interested in learning more about interest rates, credit spreads, and the dynamics behind bank earnings power to subscribe to the Institutional Risk Analyst. And if you want to dig deeper, you can purchase the quarterly IRA Bank Book.

Chris Sighinolfi is a Managing Director and research analyst with Jefferies Research. Chris is one of Wall Street’s top-rated analysts covering midstream, MLPs, and natural gas services. In this episode of The Stock Podcast, Chris provides an excellent primer for the midstream/MLP sector. It’s a great interview with Chris providing a lot of context and insight into an undervalued subsector of the energy industry. If you’d like to learn about midstream space from one of the best analysts on the Street, this is the podcast to listen to.

Wouter van Kempen is the Chairman and CEO of DCP Midstream, the largest natural gas gathering and processor company in the United States. Tune in to hear Wouter describe DCP‘s operational footprint, the game-changing technological advancements his company is implementing, and a truly compelling investment story.

DCP Midstream is one of a few MLPs that can boast of having consistently delivered on the inherent agreement between shareholder and management. The agreement relates to the cash the company distributes to investors via the dividend. Sure, one could argue that DCP is a troubled investment story, evidenced by the lack of dividend growth since the commodity price collapse of 2014. However, Wouter van Kempen and his team have done a phenomenal job steering DCP through a very uncertain period of the North American energy cycle and has delivered on one of the most critical components of the MLP investment thesis – stable distributions to shareholders!

Professor Joshua Landis is the Director of the Center for Middle East Studies at The University of Oklahoma. Prof. Landis joins The Stock Podcast to discuss the recent Saudi oil attack. On Sept. 14, 2019, the world awoke to the news that numerous drones and scud missiles hit Abqaiq, the world’s largest oil processing facility. The attack resulted in 5.7 million barrels of oil production capacity going offline, which equates to about 6% of global oil production. The event was the single largest loss of Saudi oil production in history. Immediately after the attack, Yemen’s Iranian-backed Houthi’s claimed responsibility. However, Prof. Landis is convinced that Iran is ultimately responsible, and the country with the most to gain from an attack on Saudi oil infrastructure.